The Clean Power Plan and Beyond

Since the release of the Clean Power Plan (CPP), stakeholders across the U.S. have vigorously debated the pros and cons of different options for reducing CO2 emissions from electricity generation. This paper examines an array of CPP strategies, ranging from incremental to transformational, and from the near-term to the longer-term. The goal is to identify least-cost options to help policymakers and other stakeholders make well-informed choices. The Georgia Institute of Technology’s National Energy Modeling System is used to evaluate alternative futures. Our modeling suggests that CPP compliance can be achieved cost effectively by expanding new natural gas and renewable electricity generation to replace higher emitting coal plants and by using energy efficiency to curb demand growth, thereby enabling a more affordable pace of plant replacements. Post-2030 policies requiring further CO2 emission reductions, in combination with perfect foresight today, would motivate less natural gas build-out over the next 15 years. The South’s response to the CPP is distinct, with a larger share of coal retirements and a greater proportionate uptake of natural gas, energy efficiency, and renewable resources. In addition to reducing CO2 emissions, these least-cost compliance scenarios would produce substantial collateral benefits including lower electricity bills across all customer classes and significant reductions in local air pollution. https://cepl.gatech.edu/sites/default/files/attachments/NEMS_CPP_Paper_06-24-2016.pdf#

• Marilyn A. Brown

• Clean Energy
• Climate Change Mitigation

• Climate and Energy Policy Laboratory
• School of Public Policy